The armed conflict between the United States-Israel alliance against Iran, now entering its 30th day, has escalated significantly with the official involvement of the Houthi group from Yemen, simultaneously intensifying pressure on global energy supplies and sending shockwaves through the world economy.
Military Developments
The US-Israeli coalition forces continue to intensify strikes on Iranian military infrastructure. The US Central Command (CENTCOM) claims to have destroyed “92 percent of Iran’s largest naval vessels” and conducted more than 10,000 combat sorties in Iranian airspace since the conflict began on February 28.
Recent targets include missile production facilities and the 7th Tactical Air Base in Shiraz.
The Commander of the IRGC Navy, Rear Admiral Alireza Tangsiri, was reportedly killed in strikes last Friday.
Meanwhile, Iran continues to launch retaliatory attacks using missiles and drones targeting US and Israeli assets across the region.
The Yemen-based Houthi group officially entered the conflict yesterday, launching missile attacks on Israel for the second time in 24 hours, and threatening to target merchant ships in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — a crucial waterway carrying 12 percent of global trade.
Hezbollah in Lebanon also remains engaged in fighting with Israel, with Secretary-General Naim Qassem stating that Lebanon and Hezbollah are now in “a war against the US and Israel.”
Impact on Oil Prices
Oil prices have recorded the highest monthly increase in history. Brent crude surged to $105-113 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) reached $96-100 per barrel — an increase of 50 to 60 percent compared to pre-war levels.
The main factor is Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries approximately 20 million barrels of oil per day — one-fifth of global oil supply. The International Energy Agency (IEA) describes this as “the largest supply disruption in the history of global oil markets.”
Additionally, Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG facility was severely damaged in the March 18 attack, with repair estimates extending up to five years. This facility supplies one-third of global helium needs — a critical component for semiconductor manufacturing, rockets, and medical imaging.
Global Stagflation Threat
Economists warn that this oil price shock could lead to stagflation — high inflation accompanied by slow economic growth — a phenomenon last seen during the 1970s oil crisis.
Stagflation is among the most bitter economic problems: high inflation mixed with weak labor markets, producing a toxic combination that punishes consumers and puzzles economists.
Gita Gopinath, former chief economist of the IMF, stated that expected global growth of 3.3 percent for 2026 would decrease by 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points if oil prices remain at $85 per barrel.
Moody’s Analytics has raised the probability of a US recession to 40 percent, while US retail gasoline prices have increased to nearly $4 per gallon from $2.98 a month ago.
Asian stock markets plunged sharply, with South Korea’s Kospi falling 6.5 percent, Japan’s Nikkei dropping 3.5 percent, and the Shanghai Composite declining 3.7 percent. The US S&P 500 recorded four consecutive weeks of losses.
Regional Impact
Asian countries, which depend on 80 percent of oil and LNG supplies from the Strait of Hormuz, have begun implementing drastic energy-saving measures.
The Philippines has ordered government offices to operate four days a week and limited air conditioner use to 24°C.
Thailand has encouraged government workers to use stairs. India is prioritizing LPG supply to households over businesses, while South Korea has restricted vehicle use by government employees.
The agricultural sector has also been affected, with fertilizer prices soaring — urea up 50 percent and ammonia up 20 percent — given that 40 percent of global nitrogen fertilizer exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brazil, which obtains 85 percent of its fertilizer from imports, faces food security risks.
Diplomatic Status
Iran officially rejected a 15-point plan delivered by US special envoy Steve Witkoff through Pakistan on March 25.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stressed that no official negotiations are taking place with Washington, despite message exchanges through intermediary countries.
The United States has given Iran until April 6 to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with President Trump extending the moratorium on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure until that date.
Pakistan has emerged as a key mediator, preparing to host negotiations involving diplomats from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt.
US Vice President JD Vance is scheduled to meet in Pakistan this weekend to discuss an “exit strategy” from the conflict.
Approximately 3,500 additional troops from the 82nd Airborne Division and US Marines have arrived in the region, marking the largest US military presence since the 2003 Iraq war.
Meanwhile, Macquarie estimates a 40 percent probability that the conflict will extend into June, with potential oil prices reaching $200 per barrel in that scenario. — Agency/AI
Sources: Al Jazeera, Barchart.com, U.S. News & World Report / Associated Press, WION, Jakarta Globe, Times Now News, Asianet Newsable, The Irish Times / Bloomberg, Telegraph India / AP, KCLU / NPR.
Note: This report is compiled based on developments up to March 29, 2026. The situation is highly dynamic and may change at any time.
